모건 스탠리 투자분석 보고서 | Navigating the Trump Trade

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Source: The GIC Weekly, Morgan Stanley

 

챗지피티를 통해 한국어로 요약 정리하면 다음과 같다.

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트럼프 대통령 당선자는 결정적인 승리를 거두며 주식 투자자와 채권 투자자 간의 잠재적인 대립을 야기했습니다.

1. 주식 시장 동향
   • 주식 투자자들은 세금 감면과 규제 완화에 대한 기대감으로 낙관적인 태도를 보이며 소형주, 금융주, 암호화폐 등에서 상승세를 기록했습니다.
   • S&P 500 지수는 올해 25% 이상 상승해 5,900포인트를 돌파했으며, 연말까지 6,000포인트를 넘길 가능성이 높습니다.
   • 그러나 주식 가치는 현재 12개월 예상 수익 대비 23배 수준으로 과도한 밸류에이션 문제를 안고 있습니다.
2. 채권 시장 동향
   • 채권 투자자들은 세금 감면이 재정 적자를 키우고, 관세와 이민 정책으로 인플레이션이 상승할 것이라는 우려로 국채 금리가 급등했습니다.
   • 10년물 국채 금리는 4.4%를 넘었으며, 이는 실질 금리 2%와 기대 인플레이션 2.4% 상승을 반영합니다.
3. 환율 및 신흥 시장 영향
   • 금리 상승으로 달러 강세가 이어지며 신흥 시장 통화가 타격을 받았고, 멕시코 페소는 최근 몇 달 동안 25% 하락했습니다.
4. 2025년 전망과 투자 전략
   • 현재 시장의 낙관론은 과도하며, 2025년에는 더딘 수익 성장과 정책 우선순위 조정 실패로 인해 시장 성장이 제한될 수 있습니다.
   • S&P 500에 대해 연말 세금 손실 수확 전략을 활용한 전술적 차익 실현을 권장합니다.
   • 장기 투자자는 지역 및 섹터 간 균형을 고려해 포트폴리오를 재조정하고, 채권, 실물 자산, 헤지펀드, 비유동 자산 등으로 분산 투자를 강화해야 합니다.

핵심 결론
현재의 투자 심리는 "트럼프 무역"이라는 2016년의 성공 사례를 재현하려는 시도이지만, 경제적 출발점과 정책 위험을 고려하면 이는 과도한 낙관론일 수 있습니다. 정책 순서와 실행이 중요하며, 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오 전략이 필요합니다.

 

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결론적으로는 지난번 레포트와 마찬가지로, 시장의 불확실성을 고려하여 분산투자할 것을 강력하게 권하고 있다. 

이번 내용에선 몇가지 추가로 흥미로웠던 점이 있는데, 이유에 대한 답을 찾으려 고민도 하기 전에 챗지피티에게 물으니 꽤 신뢰감 가는 내용의 답을 해주었다.

 

1) 관세와 이민정책이 인플레이션을 야기한다는 주장의 근거는 다음과 같다고 한다.

(1) 관세 정책이 인플레이션을 유발하는 방식

• 수입 비용 증가
• 공급망 병목 현상
• 경쟁 감소

(2) 이민 정책이 인플레이션에 미치는 영향

• 노동력 부족에 따른 임금 상승
• 소비 감소

(3) 역사적 사례

• 2018~2019년 무역 전쟁:
  미국이 중국 제품에 고율 관세를 부과했을 때, 가전제품, 자동차 부품 등 여러 소비재의 가격이 상승했습니다.
• 이민 제한 정책과 농업:이민 노동력이 감소하면서 농업 분야에서 생산성이 하락하고 노동 비용이 증가했으며, 이는 식료품 가격 상승으로 이어졌습니다.

 

2) 달러 강세가 신흥국 시장의 통화 약세를 가져온다는 것을 보고, 유로화의 트렌드는 어떻게 움직이는지, 특히 달러 및 원화와의 관계가 어떻게 되는지도 물어봤다.

 

유로/원 환율은 달러와 연동되는 경향이 있지만, 유럽중앙은행(ECB)의 통화 정책과 유럽 경제 상황에도 크게 영향을 받습니다. ECB가 유럽 경제 성장을 지원하기 위해 유동성을 확대하고 금리를 낮추는 정책을 유지함에 따라 유로는 달러 대비 약세를 보이고 있습니다. 이런 약세는 원/유로 환율의 상승으로 이어질 가능성이 높습니다. 다만 최근 환율 변동성은 높아졌으며, 글로벌 불확실성이 증가함에 따라 원/유로 환율도 변동성이 클 것으로 예상됩니다​.

 

3) 현재 시장의 낙관론이 과도하며 2025년에는 오히려 여러 요인으로 인해 (정책 우선순위 조정 실패, 수익 성장의 둔화) 성장이 제한될 수 있으니, "연말 세금 손실 수확 전략을 활용한 전술적 차익 실현을 권장" 했다. 즉 올해는 많이 벌어서 세금을 낼 것이고, 내년은 덜 벌 것이니 세금을 이연할 수 있다고, 그 범위에서 차익 실현을 권장한다고 이해했는데.... 챗지피티는 아래와 같이 설명해주었다. 한마디로, 손실 날것같으면 많이버는 올해에 인식을 시켜버려서 세금 덜 내라는 뜻이다.

 

연말 세금 손실 수확 전략(Tax-Loss Harvesting)을 활용한 전술적 차익 실현은 다음과 같은 투자 및 세무 전략을 의미합니다.

1. 세금 손실 수확 전략:
   • 투자자가 보유한 포트폴리오에서 손실이 발생한 자산을 연말 전에 매도해, 해당 손실을 실현함으로써 세금 공제 혜택을 받는 전략입니다. 이로 인해 다른 투자에서 얻은 수익에 대한 세금 부담을 줄일 수 있습니다.
   • 예를 들어, 주식 A에서 $1,000의 손실이 발생하고 주식 B에서 $1,500의 이익이 발생했다면, 손실을 상쇄해 순이익 $500만 과세 대상이 됩니다.
2. 전술적 차익 실현:
   • 특정 자산에서 이미 높은 수익을 올렸거나 고평가된 자산(예: S&P 500 지수 포함 주식)을 매도해 수익을 확보하는 전략입니다. 이를 통해 투자자는 잠재적 조정이나 시장 하락 위험에 대비할 수 있습니다.
   • 특히 연말에는 세금 손실 수확과 결합해 세금 부담을 줄이는 동시에 재무 구조를 최적화할 수 있습니다.

권장의 이유

• 현재 시장 환경:
  • 주식 시장이 최근 강세를 보였고(S&P 500이 올해 25% 이상 상승) 평가가 높은 상태로 분석됩니다. 일부 투자자들은 2025년에 이익 성장 속도가 둔화될 가능성을 우려하며 지금 차익을 실현하려고 합니다.
• 세금 효율성:
  • 연말에 손실을 실현하면 세금 신고 기간 동안 공제를 활용할 수 있습니다.
  • 차익 실현과 손실 상쇄로 세금을 최소화하면서 자산 재분배 기회를 얻습니다.
• 리밸런싱 기회:
  • 대체로 연말에는 투자 포트폴리오를 검토하고 특정 자산군(예: 대형 가치주, 신흥시장)으로의 재분배를 통해 장기 전략에 맞게 리밸런싱을 수행하는 데 적합한 시기입니다.

이 전략은 특히 미국과 같은 자본 이득세 제도가 명확한 국가에서 활용도가 높으며, 투자자가 세금과 수익 관리를 동시에 최적화할 수 있도록 돕는 중요한 방법으로 간주됩니다.

 

 

주저리 주저리 원문은 아래와 같다.

 

Global Investment Committee | November 11, 2024

Navigating the Trump Trade

The decisive win by President-elect Trump has set up a potential confrontation between stock and bond investors. Equity investors have added a high degree of confidence in tax-cut extensions and deregulation to their bullish narrative, following a predictable playbook including potential for unlocked deal activity. It’s been less joyous for bond investors, with yields backing up sharply midweek over concerns around unfunded tax cuts and the inflationary impact of proposed tariff and immigration policies. As these dynamics have introduced uncertainties around Fed easing, rising yields have coincided with US dollar strength, leaving victims among multinationals and emerging markets. While the GIC can reconcile these views based on investor presumptions of a reflationary, “nolanding” scenario, where all “the goodies” hit simultaneously, reality is more nuanced. First, this is not 2016, when Trump inherited an economy recovering from six years of secular[J1]  stagnation. Second, we remain focused on rich valuations. Third, aggressive 2025 earnings expectations seem at odds with the pace of profit growth. Finally, stock investors are pricing zero risk premiums around the sequencing of political priorities. Consider taking profits tactically in the S&P 500 via year-end tax-loss harvesting. Opportunities exist, especially in large-cap value, midcap growth and emerging markets, as currency volatility has surged. Longer-term investors should focus on rebalancing to strategic asset allocation targets, pursuing maximum diversification among stocks (in terms of regions and sectors), bonds (neutralizing major duration skews), real assets, hedge funds and private illiquid investments. Americans in general and investors specifically have spent much of the past month viewing the election differently. As most citizens embraced the polling-informed popular media narrative, investors seemed to hew[J2]  to the online betting, or prediction, markets. Notably, while polls called the presidential race a dead heat [J3] to the last moment, prediction markets discounted a Trump win as early as the first week of October. The implication was that for a good portion of the past month, investors have been pressing the so-called Trump trade, borrowing from the 2016 playbook and driving gains in smallcap stocks, financials and cryptocurrencies. Bond markets, for their part, echoed worries about unfunded tax cuts, as they did in 2016, with yields backing up by 60 basis points over 30 days. Nevertheless, with Tuesday’s decisive Trump win and clear Republican control of the Senate[J4] , equities had no problem celebrating with a release of “animal spirits” premised on hopes for lower taxes and reduced regulation. Since Wednesday morning, the S&P 500 Index is up roughly another 4%, hitting its 50th all-time high in 2024 and well through the 5,900 milestone amid a gain of more than 25% for the year to date. Money center banks—up 8.2% on growing hopes that capital markets transaction activity, frozen since 2021, will revive and that regulatory capital rules will be loosened—have paced returns. Small caps, the assumed beneficiaries of permanently reduced tax rates, are up 6.2%, while cryptocurrencies, a perceived favorite of the incoming administration, are up 10.6%, as represented by bitcoin. Alongside these moves, the 10-year US Treasury yield advanced as much as 19 basis points on Wednesday, climbing above 4.4% to its highest level since mid-summer. Real rates are now approximately 2%, while inflation expectations are up about 20 basis points, to 2.4%. The US dollar, on the back of surging rates, has gained more than 1.5%, crushing currencies around the world, especially among emerging markets. The Mexican peso, for instance, has declined as much as 25% in recent months amid growing prospects for a Trump win. As yields have moved up, one full rate cut has been pulled out of fed funds forecasts (implying only four more through 2025), and the terminal rate is now estimated at 3.75%. We understand these moves in sentiment and positioning terms, with a clear nod to the 2016 playbook, and we can reconcile the different messages offered by equity and bond markets as suggesting rising odds of the reflationary[J5] , nolanding[J6]  scenario. However, we are not inclined to fundamentally revisit our asset allocation advice, which continues to call for broad balance and diversification. Can markets ride this momentum on market liquidity and positive seasonality through year-end? We think so. And we believe that prospects for the S&P 500 to close above 6,000 before year-end are strong. But we are not chasing the trends aggressively into 2025. For starters—this is not 2016 redux.[J7]  Trump entered that year amid tailwinds[J8] [J9]  related to an economy finally emerging from six years of secular stagnation with fed funds at zero. Unemployment, which peaked above 10% in 2009, had already been coming down for several years but was still over 5%. In fact, we believe that starting points matter, and 2024 is not 2016. While markets may be discounting policy certainty based on a monolithic[J10]  view, our experience suggests that the current Trump policy agenda entails risks and contradictions that put a premium on sequencing and execution, even with strong congressional backing. Our concerns are threefold. First, investors will need to reckon with stock valuations, especially relative to interest rates. As we have noted for most of the past two years, equity investors have been quick to shrug off moves in rates as temporary, especially as enthusiasm for the disinflation thesis and the Federal Reserve easing cycle gained traction[J11] . More recently, however, strong foundational economic growth has introduced genuine questions about the long-run neutral policy rate and the long-run real rate (after inflation). Both have moved up, with current estimates of the fed funds neutral rate now closer to 3.5%, versus 1.5% prior to COVID, and the 10-year real rate hovering near 2%. The latter level was characteristic of the 30 years prior to the Great Financial Crisis, when equity price/forward earnings multiples averaged 16.5 to 17.0 times. Currently, the S&P 500 is selling at 23 times 12-month blended forward earnings estimates. In terms of the equity risk premium, which compares stock multiples to the 10-year Treasury yield, the US stock market is selling at a risk premium below 30 basis points (see Chart of the Week) versus the long-term average of 275 basis points. The current level is its lowest since the 2001-2002 "tech wreck." We know valuation is a poor timing tool, but it can be useful when premised on ambitious earnings estimates, as is the case for 2025. While we covered this topic in depth last week (“The GIC Weekly: Focus on Fundamentals”), our conviction has been strengthened by clarity on the election outcome. Consider that our original skepticism regarding the consensus forecast for next year’s earnings, which has come down from $283 to $274 over the past month, was premised on our observations around productivity and profit margins. We noted that growing profits at 15% per year in a world of 5%-6% nominal economic growth next year implies significant operating leverage and margin expansion, neither of which was observable in the third quarter outside of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. In fact, 4%-5% top-line [J12] growth yielded only 2%-3% bottom-line growth for the S&P 500’s non-Magnificent Seven “493[J13] .” The absence of the hoped-for productivity miracle was further underscored with revisions to US government economic data, which suggested that productivity, rather than growing at a strong 2.5% in the third quarter, was up only 2.2%, slightly above the second quarter’s 2.1%. Certainly, some sectors, such as energy and financials, could see earnings estimates increase on regulatory clarity, but higher rates and the stronger US dollar are major headwinds for US multinationals—a group that comprises most of the tech giants and the Magnificent Seven. For the manufacturing industries, which are already in their 22nd consecutive month of contraction based on Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index readings, policy sequencing and missteps could also make them quick, unintended victims. Recall that in the fourth quarter of 2018, trade tariffs sent the manufacturing sector into a prolonged recession that only reached a trough during the COVID spring of 2020. A trade conflict with China, just as global growth could be recovering, could thus be a headwind. A final factor we are weighing in our risk modeling is the sequencing of policies related to other populist priorities, which could offset the impact of policies pertaining to deregulation and lower taxes. In particular, we note those limiting immigration or embracing large-scale deportations. As we have repeatedly illustrated, labor markets and wage disinflation trends have benefited strongly from immigration, as has consumption. Key service industries, small businesses and those linked to US agribusiness, for example, could be impacted. Bottom Line. The Republicans’ decisive win has ignited "animal spirits," despite already lofty[J14]  expectations. The added value of perceived certainty on tax cuts and deregulation is understandable, and investors have quickly implemented the traditional playbook favoring small caps, cyclicals and heretofore[J15] [J16]  highly regulated sectors. Bond investors, for their part, have acted on concerns over potentially inflationary trade and immigration measures amid fiscal policies that could widen deficits further. To wit, expectations for Fed easing have moderated, with the forecast for more cuts falling to only 100 basis points in 2025. Rather than viewing developments as a fundamental shift toward the reflationary, no-landing scenario, we see sentiment- and liquidity-driven positioning for what it is, and we are maintaining our balanced stance. Starting points matter for forward returns, and policy sequencing[J17]  in Washington will be critical. After the pricing of peak multiples on peak profits, sentiment and positioning, we believe 2025 will be more of a mid-single-digit slog[J18]  that disappoints current ebullience[J19] . Watch indications regarding sequencing of priorities. Consider taking profits tactically in the S&P 500 via year-end tax-loss harvesting. Opportunities exist, especially in large-cap value, mid-cap growth and emerging markets, as currency volatility has surged. Longerterm investors should focus on rebalancing to strategic asset allocation targets, pursuing maximum diversification among stocks (in terms of regions and sectors), bonds (neutralizing major duration skews), real assets, hedge funds and private illiquid investments.

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 [J1][ ˈsekjələ(r) ] 세속적인, 일반 대중들 속에 사는

 [J2](도구를 써서 큰 것을) 자르다, (큰것을) 잘라서 만들다 / Hew to: ~따르다, 준수하다, 신봉하다

 [J3]막상막하의 승부 (be in a dead heat)

 [J4]Senate이면 하원은 the House chamber 아니면 the Upper/ Lower House라고 부르면 됨

 [J5]Reflation is a policy that is enacted after a period of economic slowdown or contraction.

·The goal is to expand output, stimulate spending and curb the effects of deflation.

·Policies include tax cuts, infrastructure spending, increasing the money supply, and lowering interest rates.

 [J6]"no landing" scenario involves the economy continuing to grow despite the Federal Reserve's best efforts to tamp down inflation with interest rate hikes (이자율이 높으면 통화량의 감소 - 즉 금리가 높으면 통화량의 축소 목적이니까)

 [J7]"Redux"는 라틴어에서 유래된 단어로, "다시 돌아온" 또는 "재현된"이라는 의미를 가지고 있어요. 주로 제목이나 설명에서 과거의 사건, 스타일, 트렌드 등이 다시 등장하거나 반복되는 상황을 표현할 때 사용됩니다.

 [J8]뒷바람, 순풍

 [J9]<-> headwind는 역풍! 앞으로 못가게 하니까

 [J10]획일적인

 [J11]끌기, 견인, 마찰력

 [J12]손익계산서의 맨 위에있다고 해서 유래한 표현.

 [J13]500-7

 [J14]고귀한, 오만한

 [J15]지금까지는, 종전에, 이전에는

 [J16]Heretofore and henceforth 이전과 이후

 [J17]순서세우기

(1)      [J18]1.동사 (시간이 오래 걸리는 힘든·지루한 일을) 열심히[묵묵히] 하다

(2)     2.동사 힘겹게[묵묵히] 걷다[다니다]

(3)     3.명사 고투(의 시간)

 [J19]비등(沸騰); (감정 등의) 격발, 격정의 발로 / Ebuillient: 패기만만한, 사기가 충천한